A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
